With the holidays raging, the weather seems to be, too. Here’s a backcountry related news roundup to close out the week.
Without getting into the weeds, significant moisture continues to roll in from the Pacific. If buzzwords are any clue, atmospheric rivers are the rage right now (or, as we have heard on the skintrack, “AR” for short). As new snow falls and wind sculpts the snowscape, a wide swath of the Western U.S. is experiencing increased avalanche danger. Which means please choose terrain wisely. That’s the 50,000-foot view. The same can be said for some portions of Canada with several regions bumping to considerable danger.
General avalanche danger on 12/27/24 from Avalanche.org screenshot.
General avalanche danger 1on 2/27/24 from Avalanche.ca.
Further, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) has issued a press release regarding dangerous avalanche conditions in some zones through New Year’s Day. The release states:
“The Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) is warning backcountry travelers of a significant increase in avalanche danger across the Colorado mountains this weekend and through New Year’s Day. A series of snow storms will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds to the mountains. This combination will overload the very weak snowpack, making it easy to trigger dangerous avalanches this weekend and through New Year’s Day. The avalanche danger will reach HIGH (Level 4 of 5) in different places over the next three days. Backcountry travel is not recommended in avalanche terrain at HIGH avalanche danger.
“‘We’re particularly worried because we haven’t seen much new snow in a few weeks, and our snowpack is now exceptionally weak. People will be excited about the new snow, have time off to enjoy the mountains, and at the same time, the avalanche danger will be the highest we’ve seen in a month,’ said CAIC Director Ethan Greene.”
You can find the full press release here.
The Machines are Coming…for Wx Forecasting
Coverage of AI, or “machine learning,” or any other way of describing the technological revolution of the moment seems to have raised some hackles here at THR. Although we prescribe to the notion that humans know best, there is no doubt that some advances in avalanche and weather forecasting are forthcoming. A few weeks back, a paper in Nature titled “Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning” claimed that Google’s GenCast forecasts, which are developed through machine learning, can generate highly accurate weather forecasts. Does this mean more accurate forecasts for storm chasers and their phat-boards? Only time will tell.
Here’s what the paper’s authors write in their abstract:
“GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-h steps and 0.25° latitude–longitude resolution, for more than 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 min. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, in which crucial weather-dependent decisions are made more accurately and efficiently.”
Let’s do some translating. ENS is “the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,” a widely regarded gold standard for generating accurate weather predictions. GenCast outperformed ENS 97.2% of the time. For users of Windy or other weather forecasting products, you might see an option for ECMWF forecasts, which, as you might already know or have guessed, stands for “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.” If you are tasked with sending forecasts to climbers or skiers/riders in remote ranges, your friends may specifically ask for the ECMWF projections.
All this means that Google’s machines may assist those seeking snow-sliding goods in the short term, but certainly in the long term. (As always, choose your data wisely.)
From Machines to Chic Scott
It’s the human stories, after all, that inspire us. Let’s 180 to a pioneer in the backcountry scene, Canada’s Chic Scott. An excellent article in the Rocky Mountain Outlook informs us that Scott was recently awarded the Order of Canada, an award recognizing, “outstanding achievement, dedication to the community, and service to the nation.”
Scott is a storied figure in the community with many first ascents, decants, and ski traverses. In 1969, along with partners Don Gardner, Charlie Locke, and Neil Liske, they completed a 21-day 300km ski traverse from Jasper to Lake Louise. The traverse is known as the Great Divide traverse.
