We published a short piece in late February advocating for the backcountry community to participate in The Snow Pool. According to the researchers behind The Snow Pool, the initiative aims to learn how the winter backcountry community uses avalanche forecasts. Further, the survey’s data may help forecasters become better communicators. All this is worthy.
As mentioned in the February piece, The Snow Pool questions are thorough and will prompt survey takers to reflect on their practices. Recently, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) and The Snow Pool research group released some preliminary findings from this winter’s data collection. (The images/graphs below are provided by The Snow Pool and the CAIC.)
Image: The Snow Pool
According to The Snow Pool, there were 1213 respondents. Of those, 70% identified as male. Overall, respondents’ preferred primary backcountry activity skews heavily towards skiing + snowboarding: approximately 900 of the respondents cited skiing + snowboarding as their primary backcountry activity.
The idea or concept of “experience” is somewhat fluid rather than firmly defined—someone may have 20 decades of backcountry experience yet get out into the field only a handful of times per season—most survey participants have between six and 20+ years of experience. When disaggregating these “experience” groupings, nearly 300 participants claimed 3-5 years of experience, ~270 claimed 20+ years of experience, ~255 claimed 6-10 years, and ~230 11-20 years.
Image: The Snow Pool
The graph detailing “Will Participants Travel in the Backcountry at a Danger Rating?” is noteworthy. However, making general assumptions about who, where, and when backcountry users travel during a specific danger rating is premature, as that data is not included. For example, 25 respondents claimed they travel in the backcountry when the danger rating is extreme. We do not know the mitigation measures these individuals employ to maintain a suitable margin of safety.
We encourage you to take the full complement of Snow Pool questions. Set aside roughly 20 minutes—it is well worth it.
A common theme explored in the survey questions is uncertainty in the avalanche forecast; uncertainty is a critical concept to dive into. Like the weather forecast, avalanche experts/forecasters provide information about the likelihood of an avalanche occurring—the forecast cannot nail down that likelihood with 100% accuracy. Therefore, users must gather as much information as possible to make appropriate decisions in the backcountry. We should know that uncertainties exist as we incorporate the day’s avalanche forecast into our plans and decision-making. No forecast is bombproof.
Image: The Snow Pool
The title of the last chart presented in The Snow Pool findings embraces brevity. It reads, “Overall knowledge about uncertainties in the forecast is high among survey participants.”
The Snow Pool is an ongoing project. You can sign up/register here. You will be asked to take several informative and enriching surveys.
Links to the three surveys are below: