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Intuition and Uncertainty in Backcountry Travel

By

Alex Rose-Innes

Peaks on the dividing range In NZ face NW so get lots of sun—note the wet slides. The main divide gets 10,000 mm of precipitation per year. Photo: Alex Rose-Innes

Intuition and uncertainty in big terrain. Show here, a segment of the Southern Alps, the dividing range in NZ. These slopes face NW so get lots of sun—note the wet slides. The main divide gets 10,000 mm of precipitation per year. Photo: Alex Rose-Innes

  As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, we offer up a think piece to get us all considering the decisions we make in the hills.   We are a data-driven society, and we are a society in the grips of technological determinism where everything should be quantified and optimized. The language of work and…

Responses

  1. Barry Wicks

    This is a super interesting take on decision making in the mountains. I love the framing of the analysis in terms of risk vs uncertainty. For me, I always fall back on the “why” as I try to make decisions. Like, why am I here and why am I making the decision I am making? Is it too look cool on Instagram? or is it to feel the sensation of gliding on the snow? This always centers my foundation from which I try to make decisions, and keeps me (hopefully) out of as many heuristic traps as possible. Thanks Alexander for the thought provoking and informative article!

    1. Alexander Rose-Innes

      Thanks for reading, Barry. Motivations are interesting, the “why” of being in the mountains. They affect decisions, especially if you have a career as a mountain athlete where outside pressures require that you are always out there. Or if you have been looking forward to a trip for months and push a weather window on iffy snow because you don’t want to waste the opportunity. Doing stuff on our own terms and at the right time is the ideal!

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