Taking the Class: Avalanche Forecasting with Nikki Champion

I came in cold to a course titled Avalanche Forecasting with Nikki Champion, produced and presented by the Mountain Training Center (MTC). Cold in the sense that an email arrived from MTC’s founder, Will McKay, a few months back with a link to the avalanche forecasting class and the desire to have it reviewed. At least that’s how I took it: here’s the email. 

…here’s our new course—Avalanche Forecasting with Nikki Champion. It’s for the intermediate to advanced backcountry skier who is looking to learn how to independently forecast. We envision this being highly useful for those who go on remote hut trips, expeditions, and multi-day tours. Pretty in-depth course for the non-professionals out there.

Would love to know your thoughts.

By definition, I’m in the sweet spot for this course. I enjoy the self-serve multi-day type trip in places where a functional avalanche forecast is not broadcast. And, I’ve been doing this long enough that I’m at least an intermediate backcountry skier. Which is to say that I know some things, but am aware that I still have much to learn. In particular, I have much to learn about developing an avalanche forecast independently. 

Let’s drill down on the course. The giveaway from the course title is that Nikki Champion is the lead. She’s a guide for RMI in the warmer months and works as an avalanche forecaster for the Utah Avalanche Center in winter. By academic training, she’s an engineer.

While the course is virtual (a step-by-step, chapter-by-chapter affair with video, text, and interactive quizzes testing understanding), Champion looms large. While some online mountain-oriented classes ooze bro, this course does not. Champion presents content in an approachable, down-to-earth-style that is underpinned by her clear mastery of the subject. Her delivery neither detracts from the content nor tilts the scales toward “I want to be done with this.” That said, if you plan to work through the course and develop knowledge and skills, my advice is to begin the class well in advance, as in many months, before you plan on using the content in the field, assessing the scene, and creating your own forecast. There is a lot to absorb. Here’s the general self-paced course outline:

• Introduction Avalanche Forecasting 
• Ingredients of a Forecast 
• Weather as a Forecast Tool  
• Snowpack Tracking for Non-Professionals
• Terrain Management as a Forecasting Tool
• Building Your Own Forecast
• Case Studies and Practice
• Tools & Templates
• Wrap-Up and Next Steps 

First, I should acknowledge the undertaking McKay and Champion took on here. While this review may be a surface-level scratch at the course’s full content, I felt the presentation, organization, and complexity relied on effective teaching practices. As the course builds in complexity, concept upon concept, the user is shepherded along, without being overwhelmed. By the time the more advanced ideas and real-world scenarios are presented (you will be asked to develop several avalanche forecasts), the tasks are doable. This is not to say I wasn’t pushed out of my comfort zone. I was. In many ways, this class was challenging. Which I appreciated. But the course structure is an example of an educator laying the groundwork with basics and fostering competency, independence, and, hopefully, an understanding of the concepts presented. After all, the intent is to allow the user to gain confidence and begin avalanche forecasting in remote locations where a baked-in forecast is unavailable.

Am I ready to fly solo? Not yet. But I certainly have some developing wings that would make me far more confident to develop a forecast in a remote zone. I owe some of that to years in the field, poking around and assessing. But this class helped me synthesize the many disparate aspects of my knowledge base. I often head into the field on moderate days and try to confirm or deny the day’s forecast. Like more complex origami, Champion’s class taught me to fold many data inputs together with a goal of synthesizing them all into a forecast. After completion, I feel more confident and competent. 

I also appreciate that the curriculum includes numerous “cheat sheets” (printable PDFs) which outline key details. For example, there is a “Mountain Weather Cheat Sheet” with five succinct steps for using several weather models and data trends to improve independent weather forecasting. (This has made my use of Windy far more effective.) And, in the event you want templates for tracking weather and a “Trip Specific Avalanche Forecasting Worksheet,” you’ll have access to these, too. (I can see myself, if I were doing a basecamp-based type trip, laminating the PDFs and bringing them along.)

So far, there’s been some high, and deserved praise. It’s a big task to go into unknown terrain, and even more so when storms are expected, and to develop a forecast that you and your team can rely on. And in this context, I’m thinking of truly remote zones, where radio chatter and access to near-realtime observations from others and satellite images are non-existent. While I’ll be channeling Champion and her calmness, there’s no doubt that if I were trying to nail this down on my own, I’d be dipping my toes gently into the proverbial waters. As readers know, the consequences for making a mistake can be very high.  

Near the course’s conclusion, there are three case studies to work through. The case studies are from three discrete zones and offer an opportunity to apply the scope of concepts introduced throughout the course. While thorough and challenging—and the feedback sufficient—I would love the opportunity to have a follow-up Zoom-type discussion with the instructor and a few other students enrolled in the class. (Such are the limitations of some online classes, though.) With something like developing a forecast independently, a critical skill for expeditionary skiing that this course offers, I think the only modification to the class/curriculum I would make is to offer an add-on for one or two opportunities to discuss (via video link) a few case studies. Over time, I’d also like to see a few more case studies added to provide enrollees more opportunities to gauge their proficiency. In my estimation, that is a small lift relative to the course’s content, delivery, and excellent quality. As far as online classes, the Mountain Training Center and Champion have set a very high bar.  

The course cost $150.00 for lifetime access. Certainly, that is not inexpensive. Yet, given the breadth of the material covered and, hopefully, the positive outcome of you feeling confident in developing an avalanche forecast for a remote trip, this is an investment worth making.